From tomorrow's Independent on Sunday...

Comedian Jim Tavare opened on stage with the line: "Hello, I'm a
schizophrenic", to which one audience member's riposte was, "Well you can both
f*** off then."

Sunny Hundal is suggesting we start thinking about invading Burma. Having read the BBC article he links to HERE, it is easy to see why. However, military action against a country so close to China would be a big step indeed. Isn't it issues like this which show the United Nations to be such a useless and toothless organisation? Whatever China's failings - and it has many - its response to its own devastating earthquake has been in marked contrast to the lamentable failure of the Burmese regime to help its people.

While an invasion by western countries in unthinkable, a pan Asian force is something which could be considered. Discuss.

Labels: China

Now that the footie season is over, it's time to tell you who won the Iain Dale Fantasty Football league. Congratulations to Simon T's Dossing FC (who wins a hundred quid's worth of books & DVDs), and also to my friend Alan Sendorek, who is the man charged with handling the Tory Press operation in Crewe and Nantwich. He may have achieved second place in this league, but he needs to go one better on Thursday!

1	dossing FC	Simon T	59	2382
2	Leverkusendorek FC	Alan Sendorek	59	2201
3	Mad For It!	Mike Vaughan	71	2170
4	4D9ers	Simon Ford	55	2148
5	Real Royston	Paul Grimes	47	2144
6	Cathays Specifics	Andrew Sherwood	74	2139
7	Arry's Dogs'o'war	Harry Bridgen	64	2131
8	Baker's Dozen	Alexander Baker	47	2129
9	Las Ardillas Azules	Erlend Methi	67	2127
10	Big Al's Big Ballers	Alix Hampton	46	2126
11	Albert's Lions	Mike Steele	43	2124
12	Salty FC	Steve Salthouse	50	2120
13	Sven Eleven	Dave Radcliffe	48	2118
14	Roque Stars	Robert Foot	59	2114
15	AFC Lionel Scaloni	Jonathan Moore	72	2112
16	AFC Rosepimps	Jonny Rosemont	35	2108
17	Feet of Fury	P Doyle	62	2102
18	P J Select	Peter Doherty	58	2097
19	erm.....united	Rick B	63	2096
20	General Krulak XI	Joe Caluori	63	2092

I've just got word of a poll which will be released in one of tomorrow's papers (don't know which one, I am afraid) tomorrow's News of the World, which puts the Conservatives eight points ahead of Labour in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election.

Conservatives 45%
Labour 37%
LibDems 14%

Labour's smear campaign reached a new low today. See HERE.

UPDATE: New YouGov Poll in the Sunday Times puts the Tories on 45%, twenty points ahead of Labour. Details HERE.

After a six hour journey, and an exhausting day, I have finally got home from Crewe. The day did not get off to a good start, when my Telegraph TV Camerawoman Debra and I arrived in the town centre to find that Miss Great Britain had taken to her bed. Interview number one cancelled. We then did some Vox Pops in the street, showing voters four Labour election leaflets, which are among the most disgraceful I have ever seen. All they did was thrown cheap personal abuse at the Conservative candidate in the most purile and idiotic manner. John Harris had it right, when he described New Labour as the new 'nasty party' in the Guardian. Anyway, we interviewed about 25 people and most of them were appalled by the leaflets. Out of the 25, six were committed Labour voters who intended to go to the polling station next Thursday and vote Tory. Two more said they had only voted Labour because of Gwyneth Dunwoody, but wouldn't be doing so again. I don't pretend this was a representative sample.

We then interviewed William Hague, Edward Timpson and the chairman of the local Tory Party, Donald Potter. I take back what I said yesterday about not seeing any posters. Nantwich and the surrounding roads and plastered with Tory posters, in exactly the sort of houses which in previous by elections would have been plastered with LibDem posters.

The other interview was with Eric Pickles, who has been masterminding the Tory campaign. After we had finished someone came up to me and started asking me about the campaign and what was going to happen in the next few days. Bizarrely, this person had mistaken ME for Eric Pickles! I ask you. Mrs Pickles, I suspect, would not be a happy lady.

So, after a day and a half what do I make of things in Crewe & Nantwich? I'd make the following points...

• The Conservative campaign is the best organised I have ever seen
• The number of people pouring into the constituency to help has to be seen to be believed
• I didn't see a single LibDem or Labour campaigner on the streets in the entire time I was there
• The level of personal dissastisfaction with Gordon Brown is palpable
• There is a level of disgust at the Labour campaign
• It's the first time I have heard the phrase: 'I've voted Labour all my life, but...' since the days of Margaret Thatcher
• Press interest in this by election is huge
• The lobby is split. Half believe the by election is in the bag for the Tories, half think it's too close to call
• The Tory campaign is trying hard to manage expectations
• Turnout will be crucial. The Tories have to get their vote out in the outlying villages & in Nantwich. If turnout is low in Crewe and high in Nantwich, it's good news for Edward Timpson
  
• What happens to the LibDem vote us crucial. If they have given up (and decamped to Henley) it's not good news for the Tories. There is a type of Labour voter that will never vote Tory, but may vote LibDem to poke Brown in the nose.
  
• If anyone is going to Crewe over the next week do visit an Italian restaurant called Giovanni's. It's the best meal I have eaten anywhere in many months. And the Premier Inn is highly recommended too!

All my interviews will be shown on Telegraph TV from Monday through to Thursday next week.

Labels: Eric Pickles

The first by-election I ever campaigned in took place 25 years ago in Darlington. Several of us from UEA spent a couple of days campaigning for Michael Fallon, who just lost out to Labour's Ossie O'Brien. Fallon, however, had the last laugh as he won the seat three months later in the 1983 Thatcher landslide.

The reason I mention this is because Crewe and Nantwich is in some ways similar to Darlington, and it's not just because of the railway connection.

I've been out delivering in some terraced roads this evening and it feels very much like Darlington felt all those years ago. However, I still didn't detect much sign of any real knowledge that a by-election is even taking place - very few posters to be seen and no sign of activity by the other parties.

Just ran into George Osborne and his entourage of six or seven very happy little helpers who had been out campaigning with him all day. George was boasting of a very good poster site he had just found.

All in all, there seems to be a very happy, optimistic and well organised team up here. Win or lose, no one can say that any stone was left unturned.

Thank God I didn't get the train to Crewe. The whole line was shut for much of the day. Anyway, I arrived mid afternoon, just ahead of David Cameron who made his third visit to the constituency today. The number of volunteers in the Campaign Centre has to be seen to be believed. I caught a few words with the candidate, Edward Timpson who seems to be bearing up well under the strain. I wouldn't want to be a by election candidate if you paid me.

I lost count of the Tory MPs who had managed to get to the Campaign Centre, despite the train difficulties. David Cameron paid a visit to the nearby Freightliner terminal where he was besieged by journalists, including the redoubtable Michael Crick. If the press presence is anything to go by, this by-election has certainly captured the imagination, although I am not sure if the people of Crewe are as fascinated as the press. Admittedly I haven't been out and about much yet, but so far I haven't seen a single poster from any party.

Anyway, I am now about to go and knock on a few doors and sniff the electoral air. More later from my luxury accomdation in the disabled suite of the Premier Inn Hotel in Woolaston. It's a really nice place this, and a Beefeater next door. What more could one want in life?

PS At 10am tomorrow I shall be interviewing Miss Great Britain for Telegraph TV. Yes, I know she's a bit wasted on me, but if you have any line of questioning you'd like to suggest, please feel free...

This is Kate Hoey's explanation to her local Labour members for her decision to join Boris Johnson's administration as Commissioner for Sport. They are not going to be pleased.

Dear Member of Vauxhall Labour Party, 
The Members of this Party are its lifeblood and so I wanted you to be the first to know that I have now agreed to be the Mayor of London's Commissioner for Sport.
I have been asked to develop the London legacy plan for sport arising from the unique opportunity that the 2012 Olympics gives us, and to help increase grass roots sport participation and access to sporting opportunities across London.
As you may know, for my whole political life I have been passionate about seeing that the power of sport be used to change the lives of our young people.  Sport crosses all political divides and just as the Prime Minister appointed non-Labour MPs to advise on issues such as housing, I too feel that on some issues the "big tent" approach to politics is in all our interests.
I will not, of course, be involved with any other aspect of the Mayor's administration and nor would I ever want to be.  I do see substantial benefits for this and neighbouring constituencies and am confident that I can make a difference in this unpaid role.
Of course just like a Minister, my duties and responsibilities as a Labour MP will always come first.  I look forward to explaining this in more detail either at a ward meeting or at the GC but as I said, I wanted you to be the first to hear the formal news today.
On a personal note, I would add that I am all too aware of how this news first came out and how upset some of you were and are.  It is a matter of deep regret to me.  I share your sorrow at the loss of the Mayoralty.  In campaigning across the constituency I saw just how hard so many of you were working. 
But we are now where we are and I know that the people who elected me to serve in Parliament are very supportive of politicians from different parties working together for the common good.  Our challenge in Labour is to work together in the coming years to win for Labour in Europe, again in Lambeth in 2010, and after again in Parliament.  I look forward to serving you, and working with you.
Best wishes & see you soon.  Please do email me or call me if you would like to discuss this issue further - I would be delighted to hear from you.
Kate

Do listen to THIS clip in which a Radio 5 Live listener ties Jacqui Smith in knots over her use of cannabis.

Labels: Jacqui Smith

Just got back from speaking at a private dinner at Grand Paradiso restaurant in Victoria. It was to a group of about 15 under 30s, all of whom are interested in politics to one degree or another, but only one (so far as I could tell) was active in overt party politics. Instead of asking me to do a preapred speech the organiser of the event, Jake Hayman (son of Baroness Hayman, the Speaker of the House of Lords) asked each person to introduce themselves and tell me one thing they would be interested in hearing my views on. It was a really good way to do it as a) I didn't have to prepare anything and b) it ensured I addressed subjects they were interested in. I really did sing for my supper as it entailed nearly three hours of fairly intense, but very enjoyable political banter. I was amused to find out that their guest next month is John McDonnell.

Later on tomorrow I shall be heading up the M1 and M6 towards Crewe, ready for a day's filming for my new (still unnamed) Telegraph TV programme. However, I want to get there in good time tomorrow to do a bit of campaigning myself and sniff the electoral air. Virtually every Conservative I run into has just been there or is about to go, so there can be no complaints about a lack of troops on the ground.

There is a huge expectation in the political media of an easy Conservative win. I don't subscribe to that school of thought at all. I think it is going to be incredibly close, and the Conservatives have got to guard against any false over-confidence. There is no shame in narrowly missing out on the party's 165th target seat, but the political media - which increases in its fickleness almost by the day - would undoubtedly write it up as a major crisis for David Cameron. It would be nothing of the sort. All I am saying is that expectations are far too high at the moment and a reality check is needed.

Am I jinxed? It's been bright sunshine for six days now, and what happens as soon as I go out to College Green to do an interview with LibDem MP David Howarth? It starts raining. I was interviewing David about his Fixed Term Parliament Bill which will be read on Friday. I'll upload the video on here later.

David came second in the Private Members' Ballot. As some of you know, I fully support the Campaign for Fixed Term Parliaments as I regard it as fundamentally undemocratic that the Prime Minister of the day is able to call an election at a time of his or her choosing. This is not a party political point, but last Autumn's events are surely proof that something is wrong with out current system. A five year fixed term would be far better. Obviously, it would still be possible to hold an election during that time if a government lost a confidence vote, for example, so the word 'fixed' is perhaps a bit of a misnomer.

If you agree with e concept of fixed terms, do lobby your own MP to turn up on Friday and support the Bill, or at least sign EDM 1528.

Labels: David Howarth

One of these has happened to me this week...

10. You get a letter from Number Ten inviting you to accept a KCMG
9. You start reading the Court & Social page of The Times.
8. You get invited to speak at the Reform Club.
7. You eat Welsh Rarebit after dessert.
6. You believe William Rees-Mogg to be the world's greatest columnist.
5. You regard Nicholas Soames as a dangerous radical.
4. You don't remember the last time you had lunch without a fish course.
3. Your socks go up to your knees.
2. You are a member of more than one 'club'.
1. Your name is Robin Butler.

Having dumped their candidate in Crewe for a younger, more voter friendly model, the LibDems have now done the same in Henley. What is it about LibDem candidates that they are considered good enough to fight general elections but not good enough for by elections? Presumably at a general election they are happy to take anyone in seats like this as they don't stand a cat in hell's chance.

Their candidate in Crewe resigned from the LibDems in disgust at his treatment. Their former Henley candidate Susan Cooper is none too pleased at her treatment - she didn't even make the shortlist in the reselection - and has retired to her garden to lick her wounds.

Hat tip: Jonathan Isaby on Three Line Whip

UPDATE: Conservative Party Chairman Caroline Spelman has just commented on this: “After the local elections the Liberal Democrats should have learnt that it is fresh ideas not just fresh faces the electorate is looking for. This is further evidence of Nick Clegg's inability to show leadership and purpose. The cynical way the Liberal Democrat hierarchy has casually discarded age and experience is an insult to people who have given their party years of service and an insult to the intelligence of voters.”

I have just watched Alistair Darling's humiliation by Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight. He looked diminished and appeared to be a man not on top of his subject. His body language and mannerisms betrayed a lack of inner steel and a lack of self confidence. This was a man at the end of his political tether. And all because of a massive error of judgement by his predecessor - the man who only a few weeks ago assured us that it would cost "substantially less than a billion to put right".

Labels: Alistair Darling

Vince Cable is a much respected man on all sides of the House of Commons. This respect does not seem to extend to LibDem Peers who made themselves look utterly ludicrous yesterday when they voted against an amendment personally moved by Vince Cable in the Commons, and which he said was "important". The amendment related to the Sarkozy watering down of free and undistorted competition. They looked utterly ludicrous, even while making the limp claim that other parties did not support Cable in the Commons. Their Leader Lord McNally said Cable's amendment was an "elephant trap".

Amendment 29A
Page 1, line 12, after “excluding” insert –
“(i) Article 2, paragraph 12, inserted Article 2B TEC (TFEU), paragraph 1(b) providing for the establishing of competition rules necessary for the functioning of the internal market to be an area of exclusive competence of the European Union, unless arrangements have been made for the Secretary of State to report to Parliament each year on the operation and application of European Union competition policy according to the principle set out in the Protocol on the Internal Market and Competition.”

This is the wording of an amendment laid by Vince Cable in the Commons, who said “the concession represented a step backwards in political terms and that is why we have tabled some amendments to ensure that that aspect of the treaty is monitored as it proceeds.”

The 38 LibDem Peers voting against the Cable amendment included their 3 "Shadow Cabinet" members, among them their Leader and Chief Whip. Both their Lords' Deputy Leaders (Dholakia and Wallace) voted against the amendment moved by their Commons Deputy Leader!

Even in a Jeremy Vine Western the Deputies usually fire at tin cans or men in masks, not at each other

Sir Tom Cowie in 2007

The Tory party seems to be run now by Old Etonians and they don't seem to understand how other people live. They seem to be very arrogant like I suppose Old Etonians can be. They certainly don't understand about grammar schools. I will not mince my words: I shan't send them any more money.

Sir Tom Cowie in 2008

I have spoken to David Cameron and he is a hell of a nice guy. I have just sent him a pretty massive donation. The 'Etonian' quote was taken out of context – I did criticise one or two of his points ... He has got a wonderful personality and I think if he gets the chance, which hopefully he does, he will do a great job with the country. I have made a very substantial donation – you have got to put your money where your mouth is.

What a difference a year makes in the world of political donations. Tony Benn likes to put people into two categories - signposts and weathercocks. It's quite clear in which category Sir Tom belongs. I wonder if David Cameron was tempted to tell him where to shove his donation.

This is from The Times' report of David Cameron's trip to Crewe today...

The Conservative leader was ambushed by half a dozen Labour activists with “hoodies” pulled over their heads as he arrived at the town's police station. A Labour MP could be seen loitering in a churchyard across the road before ushering the teenagers to stage the stunt for the TV cameras.

So who was the Labour MP who coordinated this childish stunt? Did they really think they would gain a single extra vote?

UPDATE: I am told it was the Chipmunk's PPS, Robert Flello MP. His mother must be proud of him.

To those who have commented that the Tories and LibDems also do these sort of stunts, that's obviously true, but it doesn't mean to say I them any less a waste of time. The difference here is that this one was actually choreographed by a member of the government!

I post this press release from Grant Thornton without comment...

Basic rate taxpayers benefit by £120 while low income earners on £7,455 remain £32.40 worse off. Leading business and financial adviser, Grant Thornton, says the Chancellor's announcement to raise personal allowances to offset losses to low income earners by the abolition of the 10p rate will still leave some low income earners worse off, while benefiting all basic rate taxpayers under 65 to the tune of £120.

Francesca Lagerberg, head of Grant Thornton's national tax office, says although it is pleasing to see the government, having blundered on this decision from the outset, moving quickly to clean up the mess created for low income earners. However, she is concerned that raising personal allowances by £600 (to £6,035) is not targeting all those affected.

"While the Chancellor's plan offers a solution to the political problem it does not offer full compensation to those worst hit by the abolition of the 10p rate, as there are still some who will spend the 2008/09 tax year worse off," she says. "Furthermore, and rubbing further salt into the wound of those low income earners who have not been helped by today's announcement, is the fact that a large number of middle income earners will benefit from the raising of the personal allowance by £120 as well*."

"The Chancellor has delivered an essentially unfunded early Christmas present to a large number of UK workers, but failed to undo its mistake for around 1.1 million low income households." Lagerberg says many UK workers will be up-beat about the announcement expecting an additional and unplanned boost to their income, but those earning £7,455 will still be £32.40 in arrears come the end of the 2008/09 tax year.

Labels: Alistair Darling

Alistair Darling promised all low paid workers £120 each this afternoon - apart from the 1.1 million who they won't be able to trace, of course. The cost of his patch up is a massive £2.7 billion, which presumably will all be on the 'never never'.

I seem to recall that Barbara Castle promised to build a bridge over the Humber during a Hull by election campaign in the late 1960s. That pales into insignificance beside this. The trouble is that it has already been discounted by the people it affects. It's a bit like the 75p pension rise issue. The situation was irretrievable after the original announcement was made.

PS Don't I remember Alistair Darling saying his review of the 10 tax decision will last "as long as it takes" and "we won't play politics with this"? Just asking.

Labels: Alistair Darling