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Wisconsin Election Thread

8:00PM - Just caught some exit polling data from Fox:

*53-47: Obama is winning late-deciders.
*No numbers, but Obama is also winning union voters, though it's tight.

*59-35: Huckabee is winning evangelicals.
* No numbers, but Huckabee is also winning conservatives.
* 54-31: Huckabee is winning "value voters".
* 53-47: McCain is winning Republicans, who make up 70% of all GOP voters. - BLAKE DVORAK

7:44PM - First wave of Wisconsin exits are out. Some highlights:

*Six in ten GOP voters described themselves as conservatives.
*Majority of GOP voters described economy as not good or poor.

*Nine in ten Democratic voters are white, and a majority are women.
* Seven in ten Democratic voters said globalization takes jobs away from Wisconsin.

Also, in data we haven't seen yet, Jim Geraghty is hearing a big Obama blowout. Something like 60-40. - BLAKE DVORAK

7:22PM - Over the weekend, Barack Obama picked up endorsements from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Houston Chronicle and the Corpus Christi Caller-Times. That brings to eleven the number of papers in post-February 5 states that have picked the freshman senator. Hillary Clinton's total after February 5: Zero. Do newspapers follow Big Mo as much as voters? Check out our analysis at Politics Nation in the morning for a deeper look. - REID WILSON

7:19PM - From the Wisconsin State Journal election blog: ""I voted for Hillary because she doesn't have a prayer against my guy," said the mortgage company owner who backs John McCain. According to exit numbers I saw on CNN, Republicans represented something like 6% of the vote today, and they appear to be splitting at least somewhat between Obama and Clinton. - TOM BEVAN

6:57PM - Chris Cillizza has a piece up on Obama seeking to continue his win streak. The headlines tomorrow are going to dramatic either way: Obama goes to 10-0 or Clinton Upsets Obama. From the exits we're seeing and the buzz I'm hearing, it's probably going to be the former. - TOM BEVAN

6:46PM - The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has a decent series of updates on its election night blog. It appears turnout was steady to heavy in Madison and Milwaukee, both potentially good signs for Obama. - TOM BEVAN


The PM Line

Considering what a strongman like Musharraf could have done, this seems like good news for reconciliation. Of course he really didn't have much of a choice.

The Supreme Court today rejected a challenge brought by the ACLU to the administration's wiretapping program.

An Obama voter in Wisconsin comments: "I don't want to see Barack Obama get elected president ... I don't want to see Hillary Clinton anywhere near the election." Talk about hopeful optimism!

There are some things on McCain's "To Do" list before November.

Jonathan Martin finds the real passion of Wisconsin voters.

Looks like the networks will dis Hawaii tonight in its primary coverage.

Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson does a little perfunctory expectations lowering...despite the campaign's raking in of $15 million in 15 days.

A last-minute Wisconsin mailer put out by Clinton hits Obama on his "present" votes in the Illinois legislature.

Al Franken is up three points over incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman.

86 and still kicking! Nancy Reagan was released from the hospital.


OH Poll: Clinton Lead Shrinking

In a new SurveyUSA poll in Ohio, the 17-point lead Clinton held a week ago has now been cut in half. In the Cleveland area (where half of the respondents lived), Clinton and Obama split the support, while Clinton easily carried the Columbus area (one-fifth of respondents) and Obama won Cincinnati (13% of respondents).

Democrats (Feb. 17-18, 733 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3.7%)

Clinton 52 (-4 vs. last poll, Feb. 10-11)
Obama 43 (+4)

Clinton holds a 14.7-point lead in the RCP Average for Ohio

Republicans (Feb. 17-18, 478 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4.5%)

McCain 61 (+11 vs. last poll, Feb. 10-11)
Huckabee 29 (-7)
Paul 5 (-1)


Clinton Fails To File Full PA Delegate Slate

What does that mean exactly? Good question. But first the particulars, from John Baer's column in the Philly Inquirer:

Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign failed to file a full slate of convention delegate candidates for Pennsylvania's April 22 primary.

This despite the possibility the primary proves critical and despite Clinton owning the full-throated support of Gov. Rendell, state Democratic Party leadership, Mayor Nutter and, presumably, the organizational skill all that entails.

And despite a Rendell-ordered extension of the filing deadline that could be viewed as more than just coincidental. [snip]

It appears Clinton came up 10 or 11 candidates short across a number of congressional districts, including two in Philadelphia.

That's close to 10 percent of the 103 delegates to be decided by voters.

It appears the shortage would've been double that if Rendell hadn't extended last week's candidate filing deadline by a day and a half, ostensibly due to bad weather.

This at a time when Clinton's campaign, like Barack Obama's - which did file a full slate in the state - hoards delegates like diamonds.

Another example of the Clinton camp dropping the ball? Well, not exactly.

But Clinton's faux pas is more of an image problem than a practical one.

Under Democratic Party rules (and does any organization on the planet have more rules or more complex rules?) a presidential candidate winning in a congressional district gets delegates from that district (assigned at a later date) whether he or she files slates delegates or not.

But, as Baer writes, it's the image, stupid: "For a national campaign stressing competence, experience, "ready day one," one might expect a full slate in what could be a key state." Not the kind of thing you want voters reading, no matter the practical implications, when you're trying to paint the other guy as inexperienced.


Cindy Responds

Cindy McCain answers Michelle Obama: "I am proud of my country. I don't know about you? If you heard those words earlier, I am very proud of my country." (via JMart)


New Hillary Ohio Ad

"Night Shift":

"She's worked the night shift, too"? I have no doubt that Clinton, like virtually everyone who graduated college, has pulled an all-nighter or two. But isn't it a bit condescending to suggest that working late is equal to working the night-shift at the plant, the 24-hour diner, or the single parent holding down two jobs?


Just More Words

Jake Tapper moves the ball a yard or two down the field on the controversy surrounding Barack Obama's unattributed use of Deval Patrick's words:

So....the claim that Patrick an Obama "first" discussed this last Summer does not make sense.

It should also be noted that in addition to the "Yes We Can" slogan that Obama used in 2004, Patrick used in 2006, and Obama uses today, other language from the two clients of political guru David Axelrod has come from both men's mouths.

To wit:

Patrick in June 2006, at the Massachusetts Democratic party convention: "I am not asking anybody to take a chance on me. I am asking you to take a chance on your own aspirations."

Obama one year later, as quoted in USA Today: "I am not asking anyone to take a chance on me. I am asking you to take a chance on your own aspirations."

Just words?

I know a lot of people think the Clinton campaign's accusations of plagiarism are much ado about nothing. I happen to agree with Byron York, who wrote yesterday:

I think the plagiarism charge against Obama has some merit. Is it OK to lift material from someone else and then, when it is noticed, explain it by saying that there's no problem, that the guy who wrote this said I could use it? Yes, the Clinton team is looking for anything it can grasp these days, but just because they want to use it politically doesn't mean that it is nothing.

Maybe part of the reason I feel the charge rings true is because I was in the room listening to Obama's speech on Saturday night in Milwaukee. And that section of his speech was so good that I singled out those exact words from his text because they offered such an effective demolition of Hillary Clinton's argument, delivered just minutes earlier in the same hall.

I certainly wasn't aware until later that Obama was using a formulation constructed by someone else as his weapon of choice against Clinton.

Turn the example in on itself: Would it matter if a day or two after Martin Luther King Jr. gave his famous speech on the Washington Mall we learned that he had lifted the phrase "I have a dream" off of a friend who had used it publicly two years earlier? While it wouldn't change the merit of his argument, I think it would take away from its authenticity.

And so in that sense, I think the charge against Obama does have some merit and does matter, though I recognize others see it differently.


How's the Weather?

Wisconsin -- cold, cold, cold. Right now, it's 1 degree F in Madison. One. But, hey, at least it's sunny!

Hawaii -- unless you live in Paradise, don't click here.


Not A Good Sign

Admittedly, the Texas primary process makes about as much sense as the poll Tom mentioned below. But, considering Texas is kind of important to the Clinton campaign, you'd think the top guys -- say, oh, Howard Wolfson -- would know what's going on. From Jake Tapper:

On the Clinton campaign conference call yesterday, a telling (non) answer from Clinton communications staffers Howard Wolfson and Phil Singer.

When ABC News Political Director David Chalian asked them asked about the Texas contest and how they would assess victory in that complicated caucus/primary contest, the answer was tellingly confused.

The reason this is significant (beyond the Clinton campaign's seeming unpreparedness for the Texas contest -- more on that HERE) is the possibility that Clinton could win Texas overall but lose the delegate allocation in Texas.

David Chalian: On Texas and Ohio, you guys have obviously pointed to the importance of these states for quite a while, does a Texas victory only get considered a victory if you win both the primary there and the final delegate count due to the complex system there?

Howard Wolfson: Look, I think all of you will be looking at a lot of different data points to determine who wins the night. I think obviously, the delegate counts in this state is one of them, but I'm not going to presume to tell ABC News how to determine the outcome from a rhetorical standpoint. But I think we're going to do very very well.

David Chalian: But, I'm asking would you consider it a victory if you don't win the delegate allocation in Texas that night?

Howard Wolfson: Ummm, you know, I'd have to think about that. I don't know the answer to that.

David Chalian: Okay, thank you.

Howard Wolfson: That is a, ah, less than unequivocal, but I don't know, Phil, do you have a thought on that?

Phil Singer: Umm, no.

Howard Wolfson: You've stumped us. The last question has stumped us.

I mean, it's not like Chalian asked them to recite pi to the 127th digit.

(h/t Greg Pollowitz)


The Candidates On Castro

Obama:

Today should mark the end of a dark era in Cuba's history. Fidel Castro's stepping down is an essential first step, but it is sadly insufficient in bringing freedom to Cuba.

Cuba's future should be determined by the Cuban people and not by an anti-democratic successor regime. The prompt release of all prisoners of conscience wrongly jailed for standing up for the basic freedoms too long denied to the Cuban people would mark an important break with the past. It's time for these heroes to be released.

If the Cuban leadership begins opening Cuba to meaningful democratic change, the United States must be prepared to begin taking steps to normalize relations and to ease the embargo of the last five decades. The freedom of the Cuban people is a cause that should bring the Americans together.

Clinton:

"As you know, Fidel Castro announced that he is stepping down as Cuba's leader after nearly 50 years of one-man rule. The new leadership in Cuba will face a stark choice -- continue with the failed policies of the past that have stifled democratic freedoms and stunted economic growth -- or take a historic step to bring Cuba into the community of democratic nations. The people of Cuba want to seize this opportunity for real change and so must we.

"I would say to the new leadership, the people of the United States are ready to meet you if you move forward towards the path of democracy, with real, substantial reforms. The people of Cuba yearn for the opportunity to get out from under the weight of this authoritarian regime, which has held back 11 million talented and hardworking citizens of the Americas. The new government should take this opportunity to release political prisoners and to take serious steps towards democracy that give their people a real voice in their government.

"The American people have been on the side in the Cuban people's struggle for freedom and democracy in the past and we will be on their side for democracy in the future.

"As President, I will engage our partners in Latin America and Europe who have a strong stake in seeing a peaceful transition to democracy in Cuba, and who want very much for the United States to play a constructive role to that end. The United States must pursue an active policy that does everything possible to advance the cause of freedom, democracy and opportunity in Cuba.

"The events of the past three days, including elections in Pakistan and Kosovo's declaration of independence, are a vivid illustration of people around the world yearning for democracy and opportunity. We need a President with the experience to recognize and seize these opportunities to advance America's values and interests around the world. I will be that President."

McCain:

"Today's resignation of Fidel Castro is nearly half a century overdue. For decades, Castro oversaw an apparatus of repression that denied liberty to the people who suffered under his dictatorship.

"Yet freedom for the Cuban people is not yet at hand, and the Castro brothers clearly intend to maintain their grip on power. That is why we must press the Cuban regime to release all political prisoners unconditionally, to legalize all political parties, labor unions and free media, and to schedule internationally monitored elections.

"Cuba's transition to democracy is inevitable; it is a matter of when - not if. With the resignation of Fidel Castro, the Cuban people have an opportunity to move forward and continue pushing for the moment that they will truly be free. America can and should help hasten the sparking of freedom in Cuba. The Cuban people have waited long enough."