Statistics
National crime rates compared
The main aim of this report is to present comparable information for six serious crimes in eight countries between 1981 and 1999.
Title: National crime rates compared
Author: David P. Farrington, Patrick A. Langan, Michael Tonry (Bureau of
Justice Statistics)
Date published: October 2004
Number of pages: 300
This is only a brief description of what the report covers. The full report is very lengthy and detailed.
It is extremely difficult to explain trends in national crime rates and in the probability and severity of legal punishment, and differences between countries. There are enormous problems of comparability over time and between countries, in laws, measurement methods, recording practices, and macro-social cultural and political factors. However, the first step in moving towards explanations is to find comparable information.
The 6 serious crimes that are studied are:
1. Residential burglary
2. Vehicle theft
3. Robbery
4. Serious assault
5. Rape
6. Homicide.
The 8 countries are:
1. England (and Wales)
2. United States
3. Australia
4. Canada
5. Netherlands
6. Scotland
7. Sweden
8. Switzerland
The report addresses the following key questions:
How is the crime rate changing over time?
Is the probability of a victim reporting a crime to the police increasing or decreasing over time?
Is the probability of the police recording a crime that is reported to them increasing or decreasing over time?
How is the conviction rate changing over time?
Is the probability of an offender being convicted increasing or decreasing over time?
Is the probability of a convicted offender being sentenced to custody increasing or decreasing over time?
How is the average sentence length changing over time?
How is the average time served changing over time?
Is the average time served per offender increasing or decreasing over time?
The report then goes onto discuss possible explanations for these trends and relationships between crime rates and key national indicators such as unemployment rates, prosperity and income inequality, the number of police officers and the financial costs of the police, courts and prisons.
Results
Due to the difficulties of comparing national crime trends between countries some of the data included in this report maybe adjusted or estimated. This is because differences in measuring crimes and definitions of crime type. The report does however state clearly which pieces of data have been adjusted and why.
The report also presents its findings in the form of line graphs to show the comparison between the different countries.
Last update: 29 October 2004