Friends of the Congo

With almost all the attention focused on the presidential race, the legislative/parliamentary races get very little focus. Five hundred seats are up for grabs and over 9,000 candidates are running for these seats. Once the parliament is in place and the president determined, the parliament will elect a prime minister.

Thus far results have come in for 324 of the 500 parliamentary seats. The 31-party Alliance of the Presidential Majority, headed by Kabila, gained 161 seats. The 23-party Rally of Congolese Nationalists (Renaco) of jean Pierre Bemba, is in second place with 45 seats. The remainder of the seats are captured by other parties and independent candidates.

It is important to remember that these two major coalitions are coalitions of convenience, there is not guarantee that they are likely to hold. In fact, one can expect much "horse trading" as the final results are reported.

As Friends of the Congo reported in previous dispatches, reliable sources in Kinshasa had shared with us that on the Friday before the election results were announced, William Swing, the head of the United Nations Mission in the Congo (MONUC) and the Committee to Assist the Transition (CIAT), told Kabila he did not win the elections in the first round.

The plan was to have Kabila pass in the first round, however, the political opposition launched a last-minute campaign they called "Tout Sauf Kabila (TSK)" or anyone but Kabila. It is not so much that this campaign generated the necessary votes to prevent Kabila from obtaining a majority but rather it was the pressure that the campaign put on CIAT and the CEI making it clear that if Kabila won in the first round there would be widespread violence and the country would become ungovernable.

Kabila, to say the least was upset that he did not get the presidency in the first round. This triggered a number of events that few paid attention to and now is being reported by some newspapers. It went almost entirely unnoticed but the BBC reported that Kabila went on state television on the Sunday night that the election results were announced and said that he had won "a great victory."

La Libre Belgique (FRENCH), recently reported that Kabila's presidential guard unleashed rounds of gunfire from 6 pm to 11 pm on Sunday, August 20, 2006, all in an attempt to prevent the Electoral Commission from announcing results which Kabila knew in advance. The United Nations had to bring in 15 tanks to escort the president of the Electoral Commission, Malu Malu, to the television station so he could announce the results.

La Libre Belgique continued in its report to state that when Kabila's presidential guard fired on Bemba's house on the 21st of August, they knew in advance that Bemba would be meeting with foreign ambassadors and representatives of the security council.

The question that begs a clear response, is why the silence from the international community? Why is it that the United Nations, European Union or the United States have remained silent when their ambassadors and diplomats sustained heavy artillery fire for five hours? Moreover, why did Jean Pierre Bemba have to be put under United Nations protection? As reporters delve further into these questions the obvious answers will reveal themselves.

Representatives of Bemba and Kabila continue to negotiate a detente and a path to the second round of elections scheduled for October 29, 2006. Some of the conditions presented by both camps are quite revealing. Bemba would like his helicopter that was blown up by Kabila's presidential guard replaced. He also requested that his television stations that were illegal closed by Kabila be reopened. Finally, he requested that any meeting that occurs between the two men occur in neutral territory.

Kabila's requests were quite intriguing, first he requested that any meeting that occurs with Bemba, takes place at the president's office. In addition, he requested that the October 29th date scheduled for the second round be moved up sooner, presumably this would favor his campaign.

The situation is still very uncertain in the country. Arms shipment are coming into the country both for Kabila's presidential guard and Bemba's rebel forces. The CEI does not yet have the $46 million needed to fund a second round of elections. Again, there was no plan to have a second round. The entire organizing of the elections were meant to pass Kabila in the first round. Before the voting, Malu Malu pleaded with the Congolese people to be wise and mature and elect a president in the first round. The people were more wise and mature than Malu Malu gave them credit.

Another day of calm has passed in Kinshasa but below the surface tensions are still high. Diplomats continue to work to bring Kabila and Bemba together to diffuse the tension. Kabila called for a meeting of the four vice-presidents on Saturday but Bemba did not show. His people said that they were not aware of a meeting. Diplomats see this as a sign that progress is not being made on bringing the two sides to the table to diffuse the tensions diplomatically.

It appears that Kabila does not want to meet with Bemba one-on-one. Bemba said he would meet with Kabila only after certain conditions are met, for example the meeting would have to take place under United Nations supervision. Both sides are holding to their incendiary language and seem to be preparing more for war than a second round of elections, which is scheduled for October 29, 2006.

The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) began posting the results of the legislative races. The CEI expects to have complete national results posted by September 4th. Almost 10,000 individuals nationwide ran for 500 parliamentary seats. According to the constitution, parliament chooses the Prime Minister.

Diplomats continue to put pressure on Kabila and Bemba to meet to sign the accord that was agreed upon this past Tuesday. The two men refuse to meet. It appears that the only way the situation is going to be resolved is if both men are disarmed of their security forces. Kabila has anywhere from 10,000 - 16,000 security forces backed by Angola and Jean Pierre Bemba 2,000 - 5,000 backed by Uganda. Neither of these two elements have been integrated into the national army as was called for by the mandate of the inter-Congolese dialogue of 2002 in Sun City, South Africa.

We must be honest, both men did not get where they are through political acumen. They are at the precipice of leading the Congo by virtue of force and killing of fellow Congolese. The brute force they demonstrated got them the presidency in the case of Kabila and the vice-presidency in the case of Bemba. The international community gave precedence and respect to the men with guns. Van Clauswitz says "War is the continuation of politics by other means," in the Congo politics is the continuation of war by the same means, i.e. brute force and intimidation through weapons.

It is the most bitter of ironies for the Congolese people who went to the ballot box to stop the violence and bring about stability. Unfortunately, the peace and stability that the Congolese people voted for has yet to arrive. As Friends of the Congo has stated on several occasions, the electoral process was not designed to produce peace, consensus or stability. The Congolese people sorely desire peace and demonstrated as much during the referendum on a new constitution in December of 2005 (They voted overwhelmingly for the ratification of the constitution, even though they had not read it. They did this because they felt it would bring about change in leadership, peace and stability).

The blame for the current crisis lays squarely in the lap of Jean Pierre Bemba and Joseph Kabila who are holding the Congolese people hostage. However, the international community is also reaping some of the fruit it has sown. During the organizing of the elections, the International Committee to Assist the Transition (CIAT) gave little credence to the need for dialogue and a buy in to the process by all parties. Many people feel the elections were rushed and the necessary foundation was not set for a legitimate ballot that would be respected by all parties involved. In fact, the CIAT and the Independent electoral Commission (CEI), set-up an electoral process that side-lined the non-violent pro-democratic forces and favored the violent forces. From the $50,000 non-refundable deposit to the 30-day campaign period, almost everything favored those with guns and money.

Well after it was far too late, the international community organized the group of the wise, although made up of respected men with good intentions, it was laughable at best. The group of the wise should have been organized well in advance of the elections in concert with Congolese political leaders, not something parachuted in to give legitimacy to what was widely expected to be a Kabila crowning. Of course this group is bound to be looked upon with scorn and not respected by anyone.

The second round of voting is expected to occur but under what conditions and will it simply be a prelude to more war? The window of opportunity for dialogue and national consensus has passed, the Congolese people who have suffered for so long have spoken but in the end they may wind up losing once again.

The Congo's capital is relatively calm under the patrol of United Nations and European troops. The Congolese troops have been ordered back to their barracks. The violence that flared up between the Kabila and Bemba camps has subsided since a cease-fire agreement brokered by MONUC on Tuesday. Although a truce is in place, Jean Pierre Bemba remains under United Nations protection.

Businesses have reopened and the people of Kinshasa are back on the streets. It is not entirely clear who initiated the conflict. Nonetheless, what has been demonstrated over the past few days is the SHARP difference between the Congolese people and the so-called leaders who have held an entire population hostage to violence and depredation. Congo deserves better!

The Kabila government and Bemba rebel forces have agreed to a cease fire. The cease fire was brokered by the United Nations. It was a strange cease fire due to the fact that it was achieved without the presence of Jean Pierre Bemba. The United Nations met with the Kabila government in order to establish a cease fire. According to the New York Times, "Mr. Bemba’s military commanders were invited to a meeting later to iron out cease-fire details."

Although the conflict has been presented as an exchange between two factions, the more one delves into the details, the more credence is given to Bemba's claim that it was an all-out attempt on his life. Almost all the fighting took place in Bemba's neighborhood. His house was set ablaze and his helicopter destroyed. In addition, both he and the foreign diplomats with whom he was meeting on Monday sustained heavy artillery fire. The causus belli offered by the government was that Bemba's security forces kidnapped government forces, for what purpose no one knows.

The conflict resulted in deaths of 15 people. The United Nations issued a statement saying “It is imperative that the confrontations cease immediately and that the two candidates for the presidential election meet urgently for the good of the democratic process.”

According to the Friends of the Congo sources from Kinshasa, fighting continues in the nation's capital. The streets are empty, shops are closed and people are remaining inside for fear of being hit by stray bullets.

Kabila's Special Presidential Security Guard or GSSP in French is still fighting against Jean Pierre Bemba's security forces. On yesterday, Jean Pierre Bemba's house sustained missile, gun and canon fire. To the surprise of many observers, this took place while Bemba was meeting with William Swing, head of MONUC and CIAT, and foreign diplomats who make up the CIAT. The United Nations troops rescued William Swing and the diplomats from Bemba's house. The latest information that we have is that Bemba is under United Nations protection as he was evacuated with William Swing and the foreign diplomats on Monday.

The Kabila government claims that it is trying to disarm Bemba's security forces while Bemba's representatives say, Kabila is trying to assassinate Bemba. Diplomats are working feverishly to bring about a cease fire and get the two sides to talk. William Swing has called for the immediate end of clashes and a respect for the democratic process.

The European Union's rapid reaction force summoned 200 more German and Dutch soldiers from nearby Gabon where there are 1,000 EU troops in addition to the 1,000 that is already in the Congo along with 17,000 United Nations troops.

The latest update from Kinshasa indicates that things are much calmer in the evening but the climate is still tense.

The past few weeks clearly demonstrate the difference between the Congolese masses, who voted in peace and dignity and violent rebel leaders, including the government that continue to hold the Congolese people hostage to a climate of terror and conflict. Yet, these are the leaders that some European leaders and heads of multi-national corporations say represent the hope and future of the Congo.

Congolese are tired of the suffering and abject poverty to which they have been subjected. They are determined to extricate themselves from the cabal of thugs masquerading as political leaders backed by foreign corporate and government powers.

Ata Ndele, the people will prevail.

Friends of the Congo sources on the ground have reported that there is heavy gunfire in the Congo's capital, Kinshasa. It is believed that Jean Pierre Bemba's headquarters is under attack by Joseph Kabila's Special Presidential Security Guard or GSSP in French.

The Kabila camp was fully expecting to carry the elections in the first round. Although, Kabila made a conciliatory broadcast on Sunday night, it is well known that his camp is extraordinarily disgruntled by the fact that there has to be a second round.

Reuters reported that according to a United Nations source the entire CIAT (foreign donors' group) is in Bemba's house having a meeting with him. Yet, Kabila's forces are launching heavy artillery at the house. BBC reports that both the head of the United Kingdom Envoy and the head of the UN Mission is trapped by gunfire.

Friends of Congo sources say the CIAT diplomats were at Bemba's house to investigate the shooting from the previous night and got caught in an attack by Kabila's Special Presidential Security Guard. Bemba's helicopter and house are in flames and his office is surrounded by Kabila's heavily armed GSSP.

We are all hopeful that calmer minds will prevail and the government will call off its fighters.

The Independent Electoral Commission released the preliminary report last night on the July 30, 2006 election results. Before the announcement, skirmishes took place between Jean Pierre Bemba's security forces and Joseph Kabila's presidential guards. Three people were reported killed in the gunfire exchange and a number of others injured. The situation is not expected to worsen or break out into widespread conflict.

A run-off election will take place between Joseph Kabila and Jean Pierre Bemba. The numbers released by the CEI are as follows:

Registered Voters: 25,420,199
Those Who Voted: 17,931,238
Turnout Rate: 70.5%

Main Candidate Results:
Joseph KABILA KABANGE 45%
Jean-Pierre BEMBA GOMBO 20%
Antoine GIZENGA 13%
Nzanga Joseph-Francois MOBUTU 4.7%
Oscar KASHALA LUKUMUENDA 3.5%

Because no one candidate received a majority of the votes, a run-off election will take place. The run-off is scheduled for October 29, 2006, however according to Article 71 of the Congolese constitution, the run-off is supposed to take place two weeks after the official announcement of the results. The official results are to be announced by the Supreme Court on August 31, 2006. Candidates have three days to lodge their complaints to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court is to render its verdict regarding the complaints within 7 days and announce the official results by the August 31st.