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What You're Missing in our subscriber-only CounterPunch newsletter EXCLUSIVE! HOW THE FBI SPIED ON EDWARD SAID First look at secret files: How G-Men kept Said under surveillance from 1971. David Price traces years of snooping on US's best known Palestinian Bush says 30,000 dead in Iraq but real number caused by 2003 US attack is AT LEAST 180,000, maybe twice that as Andrew Cockburn digs out the real numbers Is the US Constitution worth saving? Hmmm, maybe ... New York Times takes a year to make up its mind. Cockburn and St Clair on NYT and NSA ... CounterPunch Online is read by millions of viewers each month! But remember, we are funded solely by the subscribers to the print edition of CounterPunch. Please support this website by buying a subscription to our newsletter, which contains fresh material you won't find anywhere else, or by making a donation for the online edition. Remember contributions are tax-deductible. Click here to make a donation. If you find our site useful please: Subscribe Now! Get CounterPunch By Email for Only $35 a Year Call Toll Free 1-800-840-3683 or write CounterPunch, PO BOX 228, Petrolia, CA 95558

Today's Stories January 9, 2006 Andrew Cockburn How Many Iraqis Have Died Since the US Invasion in 2003? January 7 / 8, 2006 Lawrence Velvel The NYT's Unconscionable Decision to Sit on the NSA Story for a Year James Petras AIPAC on Trial: Them or US J.L. Chestnut Racism and Injustice in Alabama's Courts Mike Ely The Dead Miners in Sago Andrew Wilson The Dying of Ariel Sharon Lila Rajiva Two Moms Go to Capitol Hill William Cook The Rape of Palestine Ramor Ryan The Sub Motorcycle Diaries: On the Road with the Zapatistas Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff An Interview with Michael Scheuer on the CIA's Rendition Program Peter Montague Inherit the Wind: the Global Spread of GMO Crops Ron Jacobs Would Ethan Allen Pay to Protest? Neve Gordon Images of Real Eco-Terrorism in Twaneh Fred Gardner Business as Usual in San Diego Josh Mahon Idaho Timber Industry Leader Advocates Violence Against Green's Mom Dr. Susan Block Abramoff Family Values: the Lobbyist Who Screwed Us All Jeffrey St. Clair Playlist: What I'm Listening to This Week Poets' Basement Albert and Engel Website of the Weekend Bush Crimes Commission   January 6, 2006 José Pertierra Posada Carriles May Soon Hit the Streets Joe Allen Gary Freeman's Struggle: a Black Radical from the 1960s Fights Extradition to the US Winslow T. Wheeler Huge Defense Budget, Lousy Equipment John Bomar A Former NSA Officer on Snoopgate: the Squawkers Should be Congratulated Jason Leopold Snoop and Shred Norman Solomon Axis of Fanatics: Netanyahu and Ahmadinejad Robert Pollin Remembering Harry Magdoff: the Man Who Explained the Empire   January 5, 2006 Scott Boehm Big Profits, Buried Lives: Bulldozing the Dead in New Orleans Zoltan Grossman New Challenges for the Antiwar Movement Heather Gray Whistling Dixie Yet Again Haninah Levine Simple is Dangerous: the Pentagon's Plan for a Manhattan Project on IEDs Pierre Tristam The Sham of Homeland Security: a West Virginia Parable Remi Kanazi Stroke of Luck?: Political Hemorrhage in Israel Gilad Atzmon Sharon Meets His Maker Kathleen and Bill Christison What Hillary Clinton Doesn't Know About Palestine   January 4, 2006 Ron Jacobs Pity the Miner: A-Diggin' My Bones Lila Rajiva Terror Hits Bangalore Huibin Amee Chew Why the War is Sexist Pat Williams How the West Turned: Biting the Hands That Steal Linda Milazzo The House That George and Jack Built: Ownership Society Meets the Entrepreneurial Style Nick Dearden The Fantasy of "Even-Handedness": Blair's Cynical Policy on Palestine James Petras Evo Morales: All Growl, No Claws? Website of the Day Rat Out a Lobbyist for Jesus   January 3, 2006 James Ridgeway Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and 9/11: How Much Did the Bush Administration Know? Laith al-Saud Iraqi Intellectuals and the Occupation: an Interview with Dr. Saad Jawad Dick J. Reavis Border Walls: the View from Mexico Joshua Frank Hillary Clinton, AIPAC and Iran Rochelle Gause Inside Rafah: Collective Punishment as Normalcy Missy Comley Beattie How My Mother Went from a Republican to a Screaming Progressive Paul de Rooij A Glossary of Dispossession   January 2, 2006 Paul Craig Roberts A Gestapo Administration Clancy Sigal A Trip to the Far Side of Madness Cindy Sheehan A Tour of Europe: Friends Don't Let Friends Commit War Crimes Alexander Cockburn A NYT Editorial Contemplates Iraq   Dec. 31 / Jan. 1, 2005/6 Patrick Cockburn The Year in Iraq Alexander Cockburn Who Are We to Complain?: a Diary of 2005 Ralph Nader Rumsfeld vs. the Military: a Pentagon of Loyalists and Enforcers James Petras The Politics of Language: "Escalation" or "Retaliation" in Israeli Attacks on Palestinians Peter Montague A Darker Bioweapons Future J.L. Chestnut, Jr. Black Forever: Race, Class and Activism in the South Vijay Prashad My California Vacation: Conversations with Indian Americans P. Sainath Farm Suicides in Vidharbha James Brooks The Spoils of War: Israel's Corruption was Inevitable Eileen E. Schell The Farmer Wants a Wife: Hayseeds and Hickxploitation in the Land of Reality TV Christopher Brauchli Birds of a Feather: George and Vlad Jo Guldi Politics, Gay Marriage and Christianity Fred Gardner America's Only Legal Grower Ben Tripp A Hapless New Year St. Clair / Walker / Pollack Playlists: What We're Listening To This Week Poets Basement Engel, Albert, LaMorticella, Buknatski, Davies, Ford and Bear Dog Website of the Weekend Commit Bloggamy with Dr. Suzy   December 30,2005 Evo Morales I Believe Only in the Power of the People Earl Ofari Hutchinson The Toxic Air in Black America Dave Lindorff Bush's NSA Spying Jeopardizes National Security Gary Leupp Targeting Iran and Syria: Goss Builds Case for Turkey-Based Attacks Ron Jacobs A Dead New Year's Eve Brian Concannon Down in Haiti, the Chickens are Coming Home to Roost Sandra Lucas Inside TeenScreen: the Making of Mental Patients T.W. Croft The Wind Has Changed: Gulf Storms, Fables of Reconstruction and Hard Times for the Big Easy Website of the Day Images of Mass Consumption   December 29, 2005 Norman Solomon Journalists Should Expose Secrets, Not Keep Them Missy Comley Beattie Christmas Without Chase Dave Zirin Over the Edge: the Year in Sports Kevin Zeese Top 10 Antiwar Stories of 2005 Derrick O'Keefe Bolivia and Venezuela Offer an Alternative to Neo-Liberalism Sam Bahour Turning the Page in Palestine, Again Macdonald Stainsby What's Behind Paul Martin's Broadside Against Bush? Bill & Kathleen Christison Let's Stop a US/Israel War on Iran Website of the Day Deconstructing the Democrats   December 28, 2005 Jeffrey St. Clair The Worst Day of Ted Stevens' Life? Lila Rajiva Operation Romeo: Lessons on Terror Laws from India Amira Hass The Humanitarian Lie Joshua Frank Let the Drilling Begin: Iraq's IMF Loan David Swanson Leaking Top Secret Lies Richard Thieme High Time for Torture Paul Craig Roberts Three Books to Wake You Up Website of the Day Conyers Report: "Constitution in Crisis"   December 27, 2005 Evan Jones Whither the National Guard? Uri Avnery The Peretz Shuffle Mike Whitney Pop Goes the Bubble! Gideon Levy Dusty Trail to Death David Swanson Kurt Vonnegut: a Man Without a Country Norman Solomon NSA Spied on UN Diplomats During Push for Invasion of Iraq   December 26, 2005 Lawrence R. Velvel The Usurpers of Our Freedoms Lance Olsen The Toughest Challenge for Intelligent Design Ben Terrall No Holiday Compassion for Haiti's Political Prisoners Scott Boehm Santa Drove a Bulldozer Charlie Ehlen A Vietnam Vet's Appraisal of Bush Tom Kerr The Atheist Dad at Christmas   December 24/25, 2005 Aleander Cockburn The Year of Vanished Credibility James Petras Iran in the Crosshairs: Israel's Deadline Ralph Nader Talkin' About the "I"-Word Lila Rajiva Horowitz's New Project: Begging for Brownshirts Fred Gardner Dialogue with the DEA Ron Jacobs When Impeachment was Taken Seriously Dave Lindorff Xmas Games for a Gitmo World Gary Leupp Happy Birthday Mithras!: the True Meaning of December 25th Saul Landau Bush's Year in Review: a Report Card from Santa John Chuckman A Christmas Tale for Bushtime Dr. Susan Block Merry XXX-mas! St. Clair / Vest / Pollack / Donnelly Playlist: What We're Listening to This Week Poets' Basement Holt, Jones, Landau, Ross and Albert Website of the Weekend Merry Xmas, From the Beatles   December 23, 2005 John Ross The Corrido of Death Row: Mexico Ends the Death Penalty Chris Floyd Gospel Truth: Bush Hypocrisy, Radical Holiness and Woody Guthrie Lawrence Mishel / Ross Eisenbrey The Economy in a Nutshell Joanne Mariner Bringing Torture into Court: the Loopholes in McCain's Bill Eric Johnson-Debaufre The Trew Law of Free Democracies? Ray McGovern Cheney the Bully; Rockefeller the Coward J. L. Chestnut, Jr. What White America Doesn't Hear Website of the Day BB King: What I've Learned This Year   December 22, 2005 Ingmar Lee The Citizen's Metamorphosis: I Awoke an Object of Suspicion Elisa Salasin Classrooms in Cages Christopher Brauchli Absolut Bush: "I Swear to Upturn and Rear End the Constitution of the United States" Robin Blackburn Rudolf Meidner, a Visionary Pragmatist Evelyn Pringle Dan Olmstead, Autism & the Dangers of Thimerosal Amira Hass A 14-Year Old's Prison Journey: "I Refused and He Hit Me" Francis A. Boyle Iraq and the Laws of War: US as "Belligerent Occupant" Stew Albert The Spies Who Thought We Were Messy Website of the Day How to Reach a Human Voice   December 21, 2005 Paul Craig Roberts One Nation, Under Prosecutors: Presumed Guilty Lila Rajiva A Short History of Radio Free Iraq Joshua Frank Nancy Pelosi's Truth Dave Zirin The Bray of Pigs: Bush Nixes Beisbol Cubano Ramzy Baroud US Image Problem Rooted in History, Not Media Sonia Nettnin Connect the Dots: Decoding Bush's Mumbo Jumbo Ben Saul Torture as Calculated Policy Jonathan Cronin Anniversary of a Handshake: Cherry-picking History in Iraq Patrick Cockburn Iraq Election Spells Total Defeat for US Website of the Day Nixon on Presidential Power   December 20, 2005 Jackie Corr Natural Gas: a Montana Tragedy Earl Ofari Hutchinson Nothing New About NSA Spying on Americans Michael Donnelly "Eco Terrorism": Cui Bono? Gian Paulo Accardo Empire of Shame: a Conversation with Jean Ziegler Pierre Tristam Trifler, Fibber, Sophist, Spy: How Bush Flouted the Constitution Norman Solomon The Foulest Media Performances of the Year Sen. Robert Byrd No President is Above the Law Dave Lindorff Missing Black Boxes in WTC Attacks Found by Firefighters, Analyzed by NTSB, Concealed by FBI Website of the Day FBI's Spy Files: Got Yours Yet?   December 19, 2005 Mike Marqusee The Global War on Civil Liberties Gary Leupp Feds Ask Student: "Why are You Reading that Little Red Book?" Ron Jacobs The Antiwar Movement, the Democrats and the Delusions of Bushworld John Blair Stealing the Golden Shovel: Lessons on Civil Disobedience Gideon Levy Sadism at the Qalandiyah Checkpoint Kevin Zeese The Global War on Civil Liberties Missy Comley Beattie Warnings from a Military Man and Dad Don Santina Ride 'Em Brush Cutter: Cowboy Imagery and the American Presidency Website of the Day A Call for Justice in Palestine   December 17 / 18, 2005 Cockburn / St. Clair Time-Delayed Journalism: the NYT and the NSA's Illegal Spying Operation Gabriel Kolko The Decline of the American Empire Susan Alcorn Texas: Three Days and Two Nights Werther The Democrats are an Impotent and Tolerated Opposition Party Ralph Nader The Senator Without Guile: Proxmire of Wisconsin Patrick Cockburn Counting Ballots and Bodies in Baghdad Fred Gardner When Prosecutors Deceive: Did the Feds Frame Bryan Epis? Dave Lindorff Spy Scandal Far Larger Than Just NSA Ned Sublette Essence is Gasoline Lee Sustar The Class War Economy Jason Leopold Did Karl Rove Destroy Evidence in Plame Case? Laura Carlsen Report from Hong Kong: Deciphering the Language of Globalization Jeff White Teacher Fired for Talking About Peace? Ray McGovern Torture Between the Lines Chris Floyd Pale Fire: the White Death of Fallujah William Loren Katz Remembering the First Quagmire at Xmastime: Zachary Taylor vs. the Seminoles Rose Miriam Elizalde Mashenka and the Bear: a Tale for Our Time Greg Moses Pinter's Provocation: Self Love in America Heather Gray Privatizing the Social Contract Alison Weir My Bethlehem Experience: the Sequel St Clair / Walker / Pollack Playlists: What We're Listening to This Week Poets' Basement Landau, Engel and Albert Website of the Day At Least Homeland Security Believes that Mao Still Matters   December 16, 2005 Tom Kerr CNN's Goddess of Vengeance: What's Not to Love About Nancy Grace? Mark Engler The WTO in Hong Kong: Is Market Access the Answer to Poverty? John Bomar When Ollie North Came to Hot Springs Patrick Cockburn Iraq Votes; Now What? Pierre Tristam Iraq, Ourselves William S. Lind The Fine Art of Withdrawal Cyril Neville Why I'm Not Going Back to New Orleans Robert Jensen Monkey See, Monkey Do: Reason, Evolution and Intelligent Design Saul Landau Bolivian Democracy and the US: a History Lesson Website CounterPunch & Dr. Price Vanquish Anthropologist Spies   December 15, 2005 Oren Ben-Dor The Ethical and Legal Challenges Facing Palestine Stan Cox "Agroterrorists" Needn't Bother Joshua Frank Organic Inconsistencies: Federal Food Politics Ben Terrall Waivers for State Terror: Bush and the Indonesian Generals Patrick Cockburn Silence Descends on Baghdad Monica Benderman What Peace Needs Walter A. Davis Fear and Loathing in San Quentin Vijay Prashad Our Torture Problem Website of the Day Hourly Wages After Four Years of "Recovery" December 14, 2005 Patrick Cockburn Iran Poised to Win Iraqi Elections Paul Craig Roberts Lethal Developments Lawrence R. Velvel A Bore Called Bob: On Trying to Read Woodward Wayne Garcia The Summer of Sami John Sugg Preach Peace, Sami; Get Truthful Prosecutors Gary Leupp Bush and the Constitution: "Just a Goddamned Piece of Paper" Ray McGovern Torture: a Defining Moment Alan Maass They Murdered a Peacemaker April Hurley, MD NPR Swallows Bush's Guestimate on Iraqi Dead Kevin Alexander Gray Richard Pryor's Mirror on America   December 13, 2005 Stephen T. Banko, III Heroes Patrick Cockburn America's War So Far: 1000 Days of Getting It Wrong Laura Carlsen What's at Play at the WTO Karl Grossman Nuclear Routlette in the Troposhere: Another NASA Plutonium Launch Niranjan Ramakrishnan The Original Sin Kevin Zeese Report from the International Peace Conference in London Norman Solomon At the Gates of San Quentin Michael G. Smith Ending the Death Penalty Stew Albert California Killers Bob Dylan Song for Tookie: George Jackson Phil Gasper California Murders Tookie Williams: a Report from San Quentin Website of the Day Boot Hill   December 12, 2005 Paul Craig Roberts The Defenders of Torture Lawrence R. Velvel George the Disconnected Jessica Stewart My Husband is at the Gates of Gitmo George Bisharat Busharon: a Fusion of Like Minds Nate Mezmer Killing Tookie Williams: If a Black Man Dies in America, Does It Make a Sound? Earl Ofari Hutchinson Richard Pryor Wasn't Crazy Alison Weir My Bethlehem Experience Seth Sandronsky Thank You, Richard Pryor Patrick Cockburn Iraq: the Beginning of the End Website of the Day Wrestling for Peace December 10 / 11, 2005 Alexander Cockburn All the News That's Fit to Buy Landau / Hassen The Condemned of Nablus Ralph Nader The Widening Wasteland of American Media Linn Washington, Jr The Philly Media and Mumia: When They Don't Bash, They Ignore Bill Christison Apathy, US Culpability and Human Rights Day Mike Ferner The Courage of Jim Loney Elizabeth Schulte Abortion and the Bush Court Neve Gordon / Yigal Bronner Murder in Jerusalem Linda S. Heard Saddam's Trial: Grandstanding in the Theater of the Absurd Ingmar Lee A Kayak Journey to Vancouver Island's Wildest Forest Ray McGovern Lies, Torture and the Six Blind Mice John Chuckman Torture and White Phosphorous: the Moral Hell of Condi Rice John Ryan An Honorary Degree in Child Sacrifice?: Madeleine Albright and US Foreign Policy Dick J. Reavis From Waco to Baghdad Christopher Brauchli Bush's Hired Pens Behzad Yaghmaian Trapped at the Gates of the European Union Aseem Shrivastava The Winter in Delhi, 1984 John Ross Bushlandia in Black and White Ben Tripp War, What is It Good For? St. Clair / Pollack / Vest / Despair Playlist: What We're Listening to This Week Poets' Basement Hassen, Bear Dog, Ford, Mickey Z, Albert & Engel Website of the Week Burn a Brick for Bush   December 9, 2005 Linn Washington, Jr. Roots of Gitmo Torture Lie Close to Home Dave Zirin / Mike Stark On Seeing Wesley Baker Die Patrick Cockburn Blair Tries to Cover Up $1.3 Billion Iraqi Theft Alexander Cockburn Murtha Returns to Attack; Flays Bush Lila Rajiva Shooting the Mentally Ill Gary Leupp White House Liars on the Defensive Jason Leopold Rove Running Out of Answers, Time Bruce K. Gagnon So These Are the Democrats? Andrew Cockburn Meet Rahm Emmanuel, the Democrats' New Gatekeeper Website of the Day "X-mas Time for Visa"   December 8, 2005 Kathy Kelly Blessed are the Merciful in Baghdad James Petras The Venezuelan Election: Chavez Wins, Bush Loses (Again) William S. Lind Questionable Assumptions: Dissecting the Stategy for Victory Laura Carlsen The Strange Mission of Vicente Fox: Free Trade and Mexico Justin Akers Bush's Border War Thomas Graham, Jr A Nuclear Pearl Harbor in Outer Space? Norman Solomon Rumsfeld's Handshake Deal with Saddam Tariq Ali / Robin Blackburn The Lost John Lennon Interview Website of the Day Pigs at the Trough of War   December 7, 2005 John Ryan Dershowitz vs. Chomsky: a Review of the Harvard Debate Gary Leupp Suicide Before Dishonor in Occupied Iraq Fran Quigley How the ACLU Didn't Steal Christmas Jeremy Brecher / Brendan Smith Bush War Crimes: the Posse Gathers Joshua Frank Bird Dogging Hillary William W. Morgan Rendition, Torture and Democracy Dave Lindorff A Stunning Win for Mumia Abu Jamal Patrick Cockburn Saddam: "Come Visit My Cage" Harold Pinter Art, Truth and Politics: the Nobel Lecture Website of the Day Witnesses to Torture   December 6, 2005 Ron Jacobs No One is Illegal; No One is an Infidel Patrick Cockburn Inside Saddam's Trial: Tales of the Human Meat Grinder Yifat Susskind Death, Politics and the Condom: African Women Confront Bush's AIDS Policy Mike Whitney How Greenspan Skewered America Pat Williams Public Land Should Stay Public Paul Craig Roberts Condi to Europe: Trust Us Website of the Day Debunking Woodward   December 5, 2005 John Walsh The Lies of John Edwards: What Did the Democrats Know and When Did They Know It? Brian Cloughley The Poor Dead: the Relative Value of Human Lives Mokhiber / Weissman The Corporate Crime Quiz Robert Jensen How Big Money Eviscerates the First Amendment Norman Solomon Hidden in Plane Sight: US Media Ignores Iraq Air War Plan Peter Rost, MD An Open Letter to the Justice Department: Pfizer May Have Violated Federal Laws When They Fired Me Lila Rajiva The Torture-Go-Round: CIA's Rendition Flights to Secret Prisons Website of the Day National Day of Counter-Recruitment December 3 / 4, 2005 Alexander Cockburn The Revolt of the Generals Lawrence R. Velvel Iraq, Brains and Lies Rev. William Alberts The Forgotten Christmas Story: Saying No to King Herod Saul Landau Latino Troops Have Parents Ralph Nader Consumerama Paul Craig Roberts Don't Confuse the Jobs Hype with the Facts Mike Whitney Blood Feast: Celebrating Executions in America Allan Lichtman The DeLay Scheme: Blatantly Buying Our Government Dave Lindorff A Sudden Rush for the Exits? Brian Concannon, Jr. Haiti's Elections Fred Gardner Oregon NORML Honors Growers Manuel Garcia, Jr. On Freeing the CPT Carol Wolman Remembering the 60s St. Clair / Vest / Walker / Pollack Playlist: What We're Listening to This Week Poets' Basement Albert, Engel and Orloski Website of the Weekend Free the CPT   December 2, 2005 Stan Goff An Open Letter to Congress from a Veteran and Military Dad Mike Ferner Beware Iraqization: Melvin Laird, Vietnam and Christmas Bombings Over Baghdad? Christopher Brauchli Bush's Constitutional Kamikazes: Padilla's No-Win Dilemma Niranjan Ramakrishnan Questions for the President Manuel Talens The Chávez Theorem Peter Phillips Death By Torture: Media Ignores the Hard Evidence J.L. Chestnut, Jr. Alabama's Taliban: Judge Roy Moore, Preachers and Dixie Hypocrisy Website of the Day Support the Hampton University Peace Activists!   December 1, 2005 John Walsh, MD The God Gaps Ron Jacobs Hard Rain: Toward a Greater Air War in Iraq? Jenna Orkin EPA's Latest Betrayal at Ground Zero Joshua Frank Howard Dean's Blunt Message: Forget Palestine Tiffany Ten Eyck Rank and File Resistance to Delphi Missy Comley Beattie Home on the Range: Where the Fear and the Animus Play Eli Stephens The Reed and Kerry Show Elaine Cassel A Government Game of "Gotcha" with Jose Padilla Website of the Day Rare Erotica     Subscribe Online

January 9, 2006 30,000? No. 100,000? No. How Many Iraqis Have Died Since the US Invasion in 2003? By ANDREW COCKBURN President Bush's off-hand summation last month of the number of Iraqis who have so far died as a result of our invasion and occupation as "30,000, more or less" was quite certainly an under-estimate. The true number is probably hitting around 180,000 by now, with a possibility, as we shall see, that it has reached as high as half a million. But even Bush's number was too much for his handlers to allow. Almost as soon as he finished speaking, they hastened to downplay the presidential figure as "unofficial", plucked by the commander in chief from "public estimates". Such calculations have been discouraged ever since the oafish General Tommy Franks infamously announced at the time of the invasion: "We don't do body counts". In December 2004, an effort by the Iraqi Ministry of Health to quantify ongoing mortality on the basis of emergency room admissions was halted by direct order of the occupying power. In fact, the President may have been subconsciously quoting figures published by iraqbodycount.org, a British group that diligently tabulates published press reports of combat-related killings in Iraq. Due to IBC's policy of posting minimum and maximum figures, currently standing at 27787 and 31317, their numbers carry a misleading air of scientific precision. As the group itself readily concedes, the estimate must be incomplete, since it omits unreported deaths. There is however another and more reliable method for estimating figures such as these: nationwide random sampling. No one doubts that, if the sample is truly random, and the consequent data correctly calculated, the sampled results reflect the national figures within the states accuracy. That, after all, is how market researchers assess public opinion on everything from politicians to breakfast cereals. Epidemiologists use it to chart the impact of epidemics. In 2000 an epidemiological team led by Les Roberts of Johns Hopkins School of Public Health used random sampling to calculate the death toll from combat and consequent disease and starvation in the ongoing Congolese civil war at 1.7 million. This figure prompted shocked headlines and immediate action by the UN Security Council. No one questioned the methodology. In September 2004, Roberts led a similar team that researched death rates, using the same techniques, in Iraq before and after the 2003 invasion. Making "conservative assumptions" they concluded that "about 100,000 excess deaths" (in fact 98,000) among men, women, and children had occurred in just under eighteen months. Violent deaths alone had soared twentyfold. But, as in most wars, the bulk of the carnage was due to the indirect effects of the invasion, notably the breakdown of the Iraqi health system. Thus, though many commentators contrasted the iarqbodycount and Johns Hopkins figures, they are not comparable. The bodycounters were simply recording, or at least attempting to record, deaths from combat violence, while the medical specialists were attempting something far more complete, an accounting of the full death toll wrought by the devastation of the US invasion and occupation. Unlike the respectful applause granted the Congolese study, this one, published in the prestigious British medical journal The Lancet, generated a hail of abusive criticism. The general outrage may have been prompted by the unsettling possibility that Iraq's liberators had already killed a third as many Iraqis as the reported 300,000 murdered by Saddam Hussein in his decades of tyranny. Some of the attacks were self-evidently absurd. British Prime Minister Tony Blair's spokesman, for example, queried the survey because it "appeared to be based on an extrapolation technique rather than a detailed body count", as if Blair had never made a political decision based on a poll. Others chose to compare apples with oranges by mixing up nationwide Saddam-era government statistics with individual cluster survey results in order to cast doubt on the latter. Some questioned whether the sample was distorted by unrepresentative hot spots such as Fallujah. In fact, the amazingly dedicated and courageous Iraqi doctors who actually gathered the data visited 33 "clusters" selected on an entirely random basis across the length and breadth of Iraq. In each of these clusters the teams conducted interviews in 30 households, again selected by rigorously random means. As it happened, Fallujah was one of the clusters thrown up by this process. Strictly speaking, the team should have included the data from that embattled city in their final result - random is random after all -- which would have given an overall post-invasion excess death figure of no less than 268,000. Nevertheless, erring on the side of caution, they eliminated Fallujah from their sample. For such dedication to scholarly integrity, Roberts and his colleagues had to endure the flatulent ignorance of Michael E. O'Hanlon, sage of the Brookings Institute, who told the New York Times that the self-evidently deficient Iraqbodycount estimate was "certainly a more serious work than the Lancet report". No point in the study attracted more confident assaults by ersatz statisticians than the study's passing mention of a 95 per cent "confidence interval" for the overall death toll of between 194,000 and 8,000. This did not mean, as asserted by commentators who ought to have known better, that the true figure lay anywhere between those numbers and that the 98,000 number was produced merely by splitting the difference. In fact, the 98,000 figure represents the best estimate drawn from the data. The high and low numbers represented the spread, known to statisticians as "the confidence interval", within which it is 95 per cent certain the true number will be found. Had the published study (which was intensively peer reviewed) cited the 80 per cent confidence interval also calculated by the team - a statistically respectable option -- then the spread would have been between 152,000 and 44,000. Seeking further elucidation on the mathematical tools available to reveal the hidden miseries of today's Iraq, I turned to CounterPunch's consultant statistician, Pierre Sprey. He reviewed not only the Iraq study as published in the Lancet, but also the raw data collected in the household survey and kindly forwarded me by Dr. Roberts. "I have the highest respect for the rigor of the sampling method used and the meticulous and courageous collection of the data. I'm certainly not criticizing in any way Robert's data or the importance of the results. But they could have saved themselves a lot of trouble had they discarded the straitjacket of Gaussian distribution in favor of a more practical statistical approach", says Sprey. "As with all such studies, the key question is that of 'scatter' i.e. the random spread in data between each cluster sampled. So cluster A might have a ratio of twice as many deaths after the invasion as before, while cluster B might experience only two thirds as many. The academically conventional approach is to assume that scatter follows the bell shaped curve, otherwise known as 'normal distribution,' popularized by Carl Gauss in the early 19th century. This is a formula dictating that the most frequent occurrence of data will be close to the mean, or center, and that frequency of occurrence will fall off smoothly and symmetrically as data scatters further and further from the mean - following the curve of a bell shaped mountain as you move from the center of the data. "Generations of statisticians have had it beaten in to their skulls that any data that scatters does so according to the iron dictates of the bell shaped curve. The truth is that in no case has a sizable body of naturally occurring data ever been proven to follow the curve". (A $200,000 prize offered in the 1920s for anyone who could provide rigorous evidence of a natural occurrence of the curve remains unclaimed.) "Slavish adherence to this formula obscures information of great value. The true shape of the data scatter almost invariably contains insights of great physical or, in this case medical importance. In particular it very frequently grossly exaggerates the true scatter of the data. Why? Simply because the mathematics of making the data fit the bell curve inexorably leads one to placing huge emphasis on isolated extreme 'outliers' of the data. "For example if the average cluster had ten deaths and most clusters had 8 to 12 deaths, but some had 0 or 20, the Gaussian math would force you to weight the importance of those rare points like 0 or 20 (i.e. 'outliers') by the square of their distance from the center, or average. So a point at 20 would have a weight of 100 (20 minus 10 squared) while a point of 11 would have a weight of 1 (11 minus 10 squared.) "This approach has inherently pernicious effects. Suppose for example one is studying survival rates of plant- destroying spider mites, and the sampled population happens to be a mix of a strain of very hardy mites and another strain that is quite vulnerable to pesticides. Fanatical Gaussians will immediately clamp the bell shaped curve onto the overall population of mites being studied, thereby wiping out any evidence that this group is in fact a mixture of two strains. "The commonsensical amateur meanwhile would look at the scatter of the data and see very quickly that instead of a single "peak" in surviving mites, which would be the result if the data were processed by traditional Gaussian rules, there are instead two obvious peaks. He would promptly discern that he has two different strains mixed together on his plants, a conclusion of overwhelming importance for pesticide application". (Sprey once conducted such a statistical study at Cornell - a bad day for mites.) So how to escape the Gaussian distortion? "The answer lies in quite simple statistical techniques called 'distribution free' or 'non parametric' methods. These make the obviously more reasonable assumption that one hasn't the foggiest notion of what the distribution of the data should be, especially when considering data one hasn't seen -- before one is prepared to let the data define its own distribution, whatever that unusual shape may be, rather than forcing it into the bell curve. The relatively simple computational methods used in this approach basically treat each point as if it has the same weight as any other, with the happy result that outliers don't greatly exaggerate the scatter. "So, applying that simple notion to the death rates before and after the US invasion of Iraq, we find that the confidence intervals around the estimated 100,000 "excess deaths" not only shrink considerably but also that the numbers move significantly higher. With a distribution-free approach, a 95 per cent confidence interval thereby becomes 53,000 to 279,000. (Recall that the Gaussian approach gave a 95 per cent confidence interval of 8,000 to 194,000.) With an 80 per cent confidence interval, the lower bound is 78,000 and the upper bound is 229,000. This shift to higher excess deaths occurs because the real, as opposed to the Gaussian, distribution of the data is heavily skewed to the high side of the distribution center". Sprey's results make it clear that the most cautious estimate possible for the Iraqi excess deaths caused by the US invasion is far higher than the 8,000 figure imposed on the Johns Hopkins team by the fascist bell curve. (The eugenicists of the 1920s were much enamored of Gaussian methodology.) The upper bounds indicate a reasonable possibility of much higher excess deaths than the 194,000 excess deaths (95 per cent confidence) offered in the study published in the Lancet. Of course the survey on which all these figures are based was conducted fifteen months ago. Assuming the rate of death has proceeded at the same pace since the study was carried out, Sprey calculates that deaths inflicted to date as a direct result of the Anglo-American invasion and occupation of Iraq could be, at best estimate, 183,000, with an upper 95 per cent confidence boundary of 511,000. Given the generally smug and heartless reaction accorded the initial Lancet study, no such updated figure is likely to resonate in public discourse, especially when it registers a dramatic increase. Though the figures quoted by Bush were without a shadow of a doubt a gross underestimate (he couldn't even be bothered to get the number of dead American troops right) 30,000 dead among the people we were allegedly coming to save is still an appalling notion. The possibility that we have actually helped kill as many as half a million people suggests a war crime of truly twentieth century proportions. In some countries, denying the fact of mass murder is considered a felony offence, incurring harsh penalties. But then, it all depends on who is being murdered, and by whom. Andrew Cockburn is the co-author, with Patrick Cockburn, of Out of the Ashes: the Resurrection of Saddam Hussein.

Coming in January from CounterPunch Books! The Case Against Israel By Michael Neumann Click Here to Advance Order Philosopher Michael Neumann's Devastating Rebuttal of Alan Dershowitz WHAT'S INSIDE Grand Theft Pentagon: Tales of Greed and Profiteering in the War on Terror by Jeffrey St. Clair   The Book on 9/11 the White House Denounced as "ABSOLUTE GARBAGE"         CounterPunch Speakers Bureau Sick of sit-on-the-Fence speakers, tongue-tied and timid? CounterPunch Editors Alexander Cockburn and Jeffrey St Clair are available to speak forcefully on ALL the burning issues, as are other CounterPunchers seasoned in stump oratory. Call CounterPunch Speakers Bureau, 1-800-840-3683. Or email beckyg@counterpunch.org.