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In his speech to the Foreign Policy
Centre last week, British Prime Minister Tony Blair described
the war against Al Qaeda and its associates as a battle "between
those who embrace and see opportunity in the modern world and
those who reject its existence."
Blair's emphasis on empowering
and supporting "those in favor of uniting Islam and democracy,
everywhere," highlights the difficulties posed for western
governments by the recent electoral victory of the militant Palestinian
group Hamas.
Though Hamas is considered
a terrorist organization by the US and EU for its attacks on
Israel, some believe the success of Hamas' electoral participation
could reduce regional support for groups like Al Qaeda which
reject popular participation in government.
They describe a growing schism
between reform-minded Islamists like Hamas and its parent group
the Muslim Brotherhood, who seek to Islamize their societies
through the democratic process, and those, such as Al-Qaeda,
who refuse the democratic political system altogether, attempting
to force a radical transformation through the use of violence.
Alistair Crooke, a former British
intelligence officer and security advisor to EU foreign policy
chief Javier Solana, believes there is now real animosity between
the two Islamist currents.
"I think it's a war; it's
more than just a growing division, we're talking about a fundamental
struggle for the future of Islam."
Regional polls suggest Muslims
overwhelmingly favor elections, but according to Crooke support
for groups like Al Qaeda is not insignificant, "The vanguard
[of Al Qaeda] have got some way with it but they are starting
to find it quite difficult."
Hamas, which recently rejected
calls by Al Qaeda to renounce the democratic process and resume
its attacks on Israel, warns the US and EU governments that they
are now facing a fateful choice.
"It's time for the West
to decide whether it wants to deal with Hamas which believes
in reform and want to have good relations with the whole international
community or with the people of this kind [Al Qaeda] who don't
believe in those kind of relations and believe in burning the
whole system," says Osama Hamdan, Hamas' senior representative
in Lebanon.
The Hamas government has until
now faced obstruction from the US and Israel, supported by Britain
and the EU, with threats to financially isolate the new Hamas-dominated
Palestinian cabinet unless it renounces violence and recognizes
the state of Israel. Hamas has so far rejected both demands.
Al Qaeda is also believed to
oppose the electoral success of the militant group.
On March 4, Al Jazeera aired
a statement by Al Qaeda's number two Ayman al Zawahiri, in which
he fiercely criticized Hamas' participation in the electoral
process. Some observers have interpreted the message as a challenge
to Hamas whose success in party politics could seriously undermine
regional support for the extremist tendencies of Al Qaeda.
"Al Qaeda are saying 'We're
sorry, Hamas but you won't succeed, the West will never allow
it.' Hamas is saying 'we can succeed even against the policies
and the attitudes of the United States and Europe,'" says
Crooke.
Others see Zawahiri's message
as evidence of collusion between Hamas and Al Qaeda. These suspicions
were strengthened when, just days after Zawahiri's appearance
on al Jazeera, Palestinian president Mahmmoud Abbas told the
Arab daily Al Hayat of reports Al Qaeda had set up base
in the Palestinian territories.
Hamas insists the reports are
false and says Zawahiri's agenda is distinctly different from
its own.
"His [Zawahiri's] idea
is to burn the whole system managed and led by the United States.
But we believe in Palestine we will show the whole region that
through the democratic process and through reform you can work
for the benefit of your people while maintaining good relations
with the international community," says Hamdan.
Hussein Ibish, a Senior Fellow
at the American task Force on Palestine, describes several diverging
constituencies within Hamas, some more inclined to Salafism than
others, but says none of them would support relations with Al
Qaeda.
According to Ridwan Sayyed,
a professor of Islamic studies at the Lebanese University and
an expert on Salafist militancy, Hamas has grown increasingly
wary of Al Qaeda and is now actively trying to avoid a clash
with the group.
In fact Al Qaeda is generally
considered to be more concerned with waging war against its Muslim
counterparts than against the countries of the West.
"Al Qaeda's priority is
to confront domestic enemies, be they Shiites or reformists who
are accused of being contaminated by western ideas," says
Amal Saad Ghorayeb a specialist on militant Islamism at the Lebanese
American University, "They consider them more pressing than
tackling the US and Israel head on."
Ghorayeb believes Hamas' emphasis
on defining and confronting American interference in the region
and its active role in resisting Israel enables it to compete
better with Al Qaeda for regional Muslim support than less militant
groups like the Muslim Brotherhood who focus more on religious
dogmatism.
"Hamas represents a popular
and legitimate alternative to Al Qaeda in that it has the militant
credentials of the other group, but at the same time it is also
fully integrated into its society, which enables it to be a political
player and interact with the international community
This gives them a huge edge vis-à-vis the Salafi Islamists."
Crooke believes if the Palestinian
movement is able to succeed in government, groups like Al Qaeda
that don't accept the path of the "reformers" will
be reduced to marginal, isolated movements without any ability
to affect the situation.
"It may not work out but
if it does this is going to have a tremendous effect on what
I call the revolutionary groups that believe you can just burn
everything, Hamas might do it without burning and then there
won't be popular support for the other groups."
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