SPC AC 040731

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the
   Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The
   probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern
   Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the
   Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper
   ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains
   into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced
   westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features,
   extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley.


   At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a
   low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before
   then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern
   Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into
   central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected
   progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the
   southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression
   across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture
   and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX,
   displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater
   vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm
   potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated.
   A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front
   farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic,
   but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low.

   ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z