Fiorina tops GOP list for potential Virginia Senate contest
Virginia Republicans could be about to start a mad dash for Sen. Tim Kaine’s Senate seat in Virginia — and Carly Fiorina could soon be leading the pack.
Whether or not Kaine wins the vice presidency this week, his term is up in 2018. But if he has to resign, there will also be a special election in 2017, and Fiorina, who resides just south of Washington, D.C., in Mason Neck, Virginia, is considering entering the race — but won’t make a decision on whether to do so until after Election Day, sources with knowledge of her thinking say.
Republicans in the state are urging Fiorina to run because she would bring immediate star power and fundraising ability to the expensive, back-to-back races for Kaine’s seat that will take place if he becomes vice president. Fiorina is not the only Republican interested, and the GOP field could end up being large. But her national name recognition after the 2016 presidential campaign would make Fiorina particularly formidable in a GOP primary.
“It’s something she’s taking a very strong look at,” a Virginia GOP operative said. “She’s not just name ID, she’s got serious definition. People have seen her, they know what she can do.”
Fiorina has traversed Virginia helping down-ballot candidates this fall, in addition to her continued engagement in national politics since her presidential run. This past Wednesday, Fiorina headed to the small town of Petersburg to stump for long-shot House candidate Mike Wade. She’s attended an event for GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock and fundraised for Republican candidate Scott Taylor — who is expected to win his open-seat campaign handily — as well. In late August, Fiorina held a Loudoun County event on economic growth with gubernatorial candidate and friend Ed Gillespie.
There’s also ongoing speculation Fiorina would make a bid to become Republican National Committee chair. Either would be harrowing: leading the RNC in the wake of a divisive election, or running in a special election in 2017 and then a reelection in 2018 that would be needed to win and hold Kaine’s seat. Virginians estimate the race could cost $50 million.
A number of names for other potential candidates are circulating among Republicans. Rep. Rob Wittman, a current gubernatorial candidate alongside leading contender Gillespie, is being urged to switch to a Senate bid, Virginia Republicans say, and would be a top contender if he did.
There’s also Comstock, a much-praised Republican House member and a strong fundraiser with experience winning in Northern Virginia — but one who has spent the year focused on a tough fight in her battleground district. She would be another high-profile potential candidate with a strong relationship with Gillespie if she launched a bid.
“She has a great work ethic and has a very good understanding of Virginia,” said Michael Reynold, a partner at McGuireWoods in Richmond.
People expect to see former Gov. Jim Gilmore and GOP Rep. Dave Brat, who has become a tea party star after ousting House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014, run for the seat.
State Del. James “Jimmie” Massie, who is popular in the state party and could potentially self-fund at least part of a campaign, is another talked-about potential contender, as is businessman Pete Snyder, who is involved in state politics and passed this cycle on a gubernatorial bid.
A number of other, lower-profile Republicans, such as Taylor — a state delegate running for Congress in the 2nd District — are also mentioned as potential contenders, especially if the field is quiet.
Regardless of who winds up as the GOP nominee, the 2017 election will have a very different tone than the current cycle, Reynold noted, and “you’ll have substantive candidates on the Republican side.” The one rumored potential candidate who insiders say will definitely not run is former Gov. Bob McDonnell, who earlier this year was exonerated of corruption charges after the Supreme Court threw out his case and prosecutors declined to retry it.
Republicans eyeing a Senate bid are mostly keeping their mouths shut until after Election Day. But Virginia operatives expect the field of candidates to rapidly explode if Democrats win the White House.
“You can’t note your willingness to explore because it would signal a desire for Hillary Clinton to win,” said Shaun Kenney, former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia. If Fiorina runs, “I anticipate it would push out a number of individuals,” Kenney said.
Fiorina moved to Virginia after her failed 2010 California Senate bid. But GOP operatives don’t expect her short history in the state would be a big issue.
“The majority of Virginians now were born out of state,” one strategist said. ”The issue would be, what sort of connection does she have to the Commonwealth?” Fiorina has laid groundwork in political circles, and was formerly appointed to James Madison University’s governing body, the Board of Visitors.
The potential race is under wraps for now, but not for long.
If Clinton wins, “you’ll see dominoes fall pretty quickly,” the strategist said, adding that the race could be the best opportunity a Virginia Republican has to get elected to the Senate in years. “Would you ever have a better chance of being elected to Senate than an off year, the year after a Democratic president is elected, in an open seat?”