If you were a baseball detective, assigned to the Mets, what would you make of the mysterious numbers now fastened to David Wright and Jason Bay? How would you try to explain Wright’s mushrooming number of strikeouts and Bay’s paltry home run total? Would Citi Field itself be a suspect, as it was a year ago, when Wright first seemed to veer away from his steady numbers at the plate.
After 32 games in 2010, Wright has struck out 42 times, putting him on a pace to strike out more than 200 times this season, or about twice as much as he did in each of the first four full seasons of his career, from 2005 to 2008.
In those seasons, Wright’s strikeout total was like a metronome, never lower than 113, never higher than 118. Likewise, his home run total was consistent, too, never lower than 26, never higher than 33.
But last year, confronted by the daunting dimensions of Citi Field, particularly in the outfield gaps and straightaway center, Wright seemed flummoxed and frustrated. His home run total plunged to 10, his strikeouts jumped to 140. His average stayed above .300, but those other figures, including just 72 runs batted in, were disturbing.
Those skeptical that this had much to do with Citi Field’s layout pointed to the fact that Wright hit just as many home runs at home (five) as he did on the road. If Citi Field was the problem, the skeptics asked, why didn’t Wright at least knock a lot more over the fence in Philadelphia and Washington, Atlanta and Florida?
But that reasoning seemed to overlook the fact that a hitter who gets messed up is probably messed up wherever he goes.
This season, a more muscular Wright is hitting for power on the road, with six home runs in just 12 games away from Flushing, and one at home. His average is decent (.277), his R.B.I. total (22) is healthy enough and his on-base percentage (.403) is excellent.
But those strikeouts, including nine in a row in official at-bats over the past few games at Citi Field, suggest that something still isn’t right.
As for Bay, he has one home run after 32 games after hitting more than 30 in each of his last three seasons, in Pittsburgh and Boston. Is Citi Field in his head, too? Who knows. When he arrived here in the off-season with a fat four-year deal, the Mets confidently predicted that he would have no trouble hitting home runs at Citi Field.
After all, they reasoned, Bay is more of a classic pull hitter than Wright is, and hitting home runs to straightaway left, or down the line, isn’t that difficult at Citi Field (as evidenced by the five home runs that Rod Barajas has hit in Flushing this season). Still, Bay has all of one, and none on the road. His average is not terrible (.243) and his strikeouts (36) don’t project that much higher than his normal yearly total, but something seems to be out of sync.
The Mets have played 20 home games this season, one-fourth of their Citi Field schedule, and amid the wind and the blowing garbage they’ve done very well, with a 13-7 record. In fairness to Wright and Bay, each has had one home run at Citi Field blown back by the breeze. And if the Mets can stay in contention with Wright striking out and Bay not hitting home runs, fans won’t really care.
But if you were a baseball detective assigned to the Mets, you would be snooping around, checking out those weird numbers for Wright and Bay. And Citi Field would probably be a suspect.